What is El Niño and what does it have to do with climate change?

Global climates do naturally shift over time, but climate change is amplifying and altering the patterns we’ve adapted to.

You might have heard El Niño, or even the ‘Super El Niño’, being mentioned more on the news or weather channel. So, what is it? How does it impact the climate and is it something to with climate change or a natural phenomenon? We are going to try to answer these questions and more.

What is El Niño? 

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern driven by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It occurs every two to seven years on average and typically lasts 9–12 months. It shifts rainfall, temperatures, droughts, and floods worldwide. 

A climate scientist from NASA described it as flipping normal climate patterns upside down: places that are usually dry become wetter, and places that are usually wet become drier.

The name is Spanish for “the Christ Child.” Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s noticed warmer coastal waters around Christmas and named the phenomenon after it.

What causes El Niño? 

Normally, stable ‘trade’ winds blow from east to west across the equatorial Pacific all year round. These strong winds push warm surface water toward Asia and allow cooler water to rise near South America. El Niño begins when those trade winds weaken. When that happens, unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SST) then spread eastward instead. The warmer ocean surface further weakens the winds, creating a self-reinforcing loop known as Bjerknes feedback.

This positive feedback intensifies the warm sea surface temperature anomaly. Atmospheric convection (when light, hot air rises and heavy cold air sinks) shifts eastward, which reorganizes global circulation and produces the ‘Southern Oscillation’, a seesaw in sea-level pressure between the central Pacific and the region near northern Australia.

Changes in thunderstorm patterns also alter the jet streams (narrow, fast ribbons of wind in the upper atmosphere). The jet streams shift in speed and position, which then affects weather patterns across the globe.

These changes alter the jet streams, which then influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific. La Niña (another climate pattern) produces roughly opposite conditions: cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific and stronger trade winds, with intensified convection remaining over the western Pacific.

What is Super El Niño 2026?

As of August 2026, the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a particularly strong El Niño. According to their predictions, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event through fall and winter 2026–27. 

Sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific have already exceeded +2°C above average. Some forecasts give roughly a 69% chance that the October–December period will rank among the strongest events on record since 1950. The media have dubbed this a “Super El Niño,” though that is not an official classification.

How does climate change impact El Niño?

Although El Niño is a natural climate pattern that we’ve been observing and adapting to for hundreds of years, it does amplify the warming that is being caused by human-driven climate change.

Climates can change naturally, but it’s climate change that is caused by global warming when humans burn fossil fuels that we need to do something about. This is the climate change we are causing, and it is changing climates far beyond what is natural.

How will Super El Niño impact Canada?

Typical El Niño patterns include:

• Drought and higher fire risk in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia and southern Africa.
• Heavy rain and flooding along the west coast of Ecuador and Peru, with drought more likely in the Amazon and northeastern South America.
• Elevated flood risk in parts of the southern United States and East Africa.

Impacts hit agriculture, water supplies, fisheries, infrastructure, public health, and ecosystems. Stronger events like the Super El-Niño raise the odds of these outcomes but do not guarantee them everywhere.

For Canada, the impact we are likely to see is a warmer-than-usual winter with lower-than-usual snowfall. That might sound like a good thing – cold winters are, after all, difficult to live with – however, our planet and ecosystems rely on these cold temperatures. Warm winters mean glaciers, ice and snow melt. 

In some extreme cases, as we saw in Nepal in August 2026, sudden glacial collapse or melting can trigger flooding or landslides. This increases sea levels and reduces the ice that native animals like seals and polar bears rely on for hunting or breeding. 

For people living in the North, mostly indigenous communities, their ways of living are adapted to cold, ice and snow. Melting permafrost and less snow disrupt hunting practices, can block roads that bring in much-needed resources and damage infrastructure.

The El-Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern that temporarily flips global climate expectations on their head. This winter, we’re preparing to experience an extreme version of this pattern. It’s important to be aware of climate patterns and how everything on our planet is connected. It’s also important to learn how to cope with extreme weather like floods and storms, to be able to stay safe in these conditions.

Not only that, but we must continue to tackle human-caused climate change to ensure that natural cycles are not beyond what we can live with.

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